It’s Hard to Make Predictions.

Based on the sheer volume of research that’s gone into shaping the discipline, you’d think that the performance of a direct mail campaign could be predicted with an almost scientific accuracy. Almost every possible variable has been researched and documented ad infinitum. And in general terms, it’s possible to predict what people will respond to. But as long as direct mail is being created by and for human beings, absolute certainty is destined to remain elusive.

Especially About the Future.

Is there research suggesting that a four-color envelope can yield higher response? Yes. Is there research suggesting that a simple black-and-white envelope can yield higher response? Yes. Research can provide basic guidelines, but it hasn’t reduced the creative process to an exercise in color-by-numbers. At least not yet.

But We’ll Give It Our Best Shot.

That said, there are a few fairly reliable indicators of performance:

• A mailing with an offer will always outperform one without. Well, almost always — depends on the offer, of course.
• The easier the task you ask your audience to perform by way of responding, the more likely they are to do so.
• A dimensional mailer is always more likely to get opened than a flat one. Opened, yes. Responded to? Not necessarily.
• Finally, the higher the cost of the thing you’re selling, the lower the response rate is likely to be.

Follow Insights. And Instincts.

Use research, but trust your gut, too. Blind adherence to age-old marketing maxims often leads to look-alike executions that get lost in a crowded mailbox. And the most successful campaigns are usually those that take a hard left at the status quo. Besides, if there really was a foolproof formula for producing great direct mail, machines would do it all and none of us would have jobs.

Here’s who is most likely to, in descending order:

• Customers. 3–8 times more likely to respond or buy than anyone else
• People who have responded, but not yet made a purchase
• Former customers
• Referrals
• People who’ve bought a different type of product or service from you
• People who’ve bought similar products or services from competitors¹

Sources:
Bruce Barton, quoted in James B. Simpson, Contemporary Quotations, 1964.
¹Direct Mail Information Service, Direct Mail The Media Pack, 2004.

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